Curtice hands Truss dire forecast as UK to brace for economic shock

Liz Truss to find it 'difficult to survive economic shock' says Curtice

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Polling guru John Curtice said Liz Truss is going to face a “very, very difficult” challenge as new Prime Minister as he explained in the scenario of an economic shock it will be “very difficult for the government to survive”. Given the mounting pressure from the public for immediate energy measures, he forecasted a failure for Ms Truss and her energy plan might result in a consequential failure for “this government to get re-elected” at the next general election.

Mr Curtice told Talk TV host Julia Hartley-Brewer: “The fundamental problem that faces Liz Truss, and it would face Boris Johnson, is that it’s very, very difficult for the government to survive an economic shock.

“This government is going to endure [the effects of] Covid and then it has the Ukrainian stroke post-Covid environment.

In the scenario of the next general election, he forecasted: “It’s going to be very difficult for this government to persuade people to re-elect it unless Liz Truss is right and that high tax cuts would indeed boost growth in such a way that those among the general public, including those at the bottom of the pile, actually feel better off in two years time.”

Referring to the prospect of a support package that could cost the Treasury up to £90bn, Mr Curtice said: “It’s going to be very difficult for her government to offer anything less.

“Will it be sufficient? We are talking about high levels of inflation, with even the current level of energy prices and the other things that are going up in price, including food.”

In light of the comments from Ms Curtice, Ms Hartley-Brewer said: “I’d rather hope that Liz Truss isn’t listing right now because that was a pretty depressing tale.”

She questioned: “Do low expectations help given that everyone is saying this is the worst entry ever?

“Does the expectation that it’s going to be a disaster no matter what is going actually help her?”

Liz Truss to find it 'difficult to survive economic shock' says Curtice

He responded: “I think that’s entirely fair comments.

“It’s very striking that Liz Truss election polls from YouGov yesterday, even among Conservative voters, [showed that] only around 40 percent of them said that they were pleased that Liz Truss is going to become Prime Minister.

“Polling about how good a job she is going to do are deeply pessimistic even among those who voted Conservative in 2019.

“So, in a sense, is that perhaps the good news for her is that the only way is up.

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“That said, however, there is evidence out there that during the last two or three weeks of the Tory leadership campaign, her popularity began to fall”.

Despite no official announcements, Ms Truss is expected to freeze the current energy price as part of the measures she is planning to put in place to tackle the current cost of living crisis.

The support package to freeze households’ and businesses’ bills is expected to be announced this Thursday and could cost the Treasury up to £90bn.

The measure, which is expected to last until January next year or possibly until 2024 if implemented, would see typical households’ energy bills frozen at around the current energy price rate of £1971.

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