How Tory rebels could trigger second no confidence vote on Boris

Boris Johnson says 'I'm going to get on with my job'

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Boris Johnson remains Prime Minister of the UK for the time being, with his authority near mortally wounded by hundreds of his own MPs. Nearly half of Commons Conservatives – 41 percent in total – voted against the Prime Minister on Monday, a result he claimed as a “victory”. He is safe only for the time being, as the rebel Tory contingent is angling for a second vote.

Can there be a second confidence vote in 2022?

Under Conservative Party internal rules, the Prime Minister is safe for the time being.

The party’s rules mean rebels can’t initiate a second vote for at least another 12 months.

But they could reduce this cooldown period by half or more by gently nudging the 1922 Committee.

The Conservative’s Parliamentary body currently consists of MPs reportedly critical of their leader.

Among MPs are William Wragg and Nusrat Ghani, who have been openly critical of the Prime Minister in recent months.

Their positions are dependent on party votes, and rebels will likely aim to have them re-elected to their current positions.

With their support, they could have the window before a second no-confidence vote reduced to six or even three months.

But they will reportedly wait for the Prime Minister to stew for some time before pushing further.

They are confident Mr Johnson, whose premiership has fought scandal after scandal, will “blow himself up” again.

Rebels have cited what would once have been career-ending missteps such as partygate, the Owen Paterson affair and controversy over loans for the Downing Street decor as reasons to expect further disruption.

The Prime Minister is also hurtling towards two critical by-elections he may struggle to win.

Both the Honiton and Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections are due later this month, on June 23.

A loss in Wakefield is almost expected, with the Conservatives having won with a slim majority of 3,358 in 2019.

A poll conducted by Survation recently suggested that Labour could storm to victory with a 23 point majority, with 56 percent to the Conservatives’ 33 percent.

A Conservative loss in the party’s Tiverton and Honiton bolthole is also on the cards and would prove devastating to Mr Johnson’s Government.

Tories have held the constituency since its inception in 1997 by a significant margin.

Before he left earlier this year, MP Neil Parish held a seemingly unspeakable 24,239 majority he received in 2019.

The Conservatives expect trouble, with disaffected members reportedly unwilling to vote for the party’s candidate.

The Liberal Democrats – who came third in 2019 – are likely to mop up their votes and appear to stand a chance of winning.

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