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Global strategic risk consultancy Sibylline said Britain faces a spike in domestic terrorism from Right-wing extremists and eco-activists. The cost of lockdown has been high, with as many as 170 nations – 87 per cent of the world – likely to see their economy suffer. Of those, 163 countries should now brace themselves for a potential rise in crime, a 63 per cent increase as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
A Sibylline spokesman warned: “There will be no return to business as normal.”
The London-based consultancy reviewed 32 different risk factors across politics, security, crime and governance in order to provide a picture of each country and the world as a whole.
Its research found that the Covid-19 crisis “has effectively moved forward a number of disruptive global trends”, with significant consequences.
The stark conclusion is that most countries can expect to see rising domestic unrest, falling security levels and a rise in organised crime.
There could also be a global recession and a loss of government stability.
While the threat of global terrorism has diminished, threats of domestic terrorism in Britain and Europe may spike due to mounting economic pressures.
The report said: “We expect terrorism to trend upwards through 2020-21, as groups and individuals take advantage of the more confused situation and the distraction of security services.
“Moreover, increasing links with organised criminal activity and the changes in public sentiment due to economic and social hardship will provide an increasingly permissive environment.”
Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline and lead author, said: “The findings indicate an impending wave of risk and danger, threatening the recovery of economies and prospects for organisations worldwide.”
Internationally, tumbling oil prices are likely to force Russia to shelve major armament projects such as its new T-14 Main Battle Tank.
The uncertainty will probably put Russian President Vladimir Putin under pressure as he considers a way forward.
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