BBC Weather: Low-pressure front to bring rainy outbreaks to UK
Low pressure from Scandinavia is predicted to blast Britain with a freezing sub-zero cold front from next week. On Christmas Day at 6am, nearly all of the UK has been forecast with a 20 to 30 percent chance of snow, as WXCHARTS’ snow probability charts turn different shades of blue from Scotland down to London. WXCharts’ snow depth chart indicates 17 days of snow from today to December 25, with the majority falling in Scotland.
The charts remain varied shades of blue in Scotland throughout this period, meaning there is up to 40 percent chance of snow.
Temperatures on Christmas morning at 6am are expected to reach sub-zero levels of -1 in central Scotland, according to Netweather’s charts.
Northwestern regions including Liverpool could see a chill of 3C and further south in London, Birmingham and Bournemouth there is likely to be lows of 5C.
Before that on Thursday, December 17, temperatures may drop even further to -3 in Scottish regions of Fort William and Dundee, as the Arctic air swoops in.
Brian Gaze from the Weather Outlook warned “bitterly cold air” could head over from Europe.
He told Express.co.uk: “During the Christmas and New Year period things are very uncertain right now.
“Computer models are showing the possibility of bitterly cold air moving westwards across mainland Europe.
“There is a chance of it reaching the UK but at the moment the chance looks to be between 20 and 30 percent, so it’s not the most probable outcome.
“At the moment it is more likely we’ll see a continuation of quite unsettled conditions and close to average temperatures is more likely.
Mr Gaze added that snow on Christmas Day could not be ruled out.
“However, if the colder outcome happened we could expect the risk of snow to become more widespread and a “Beast from the East” type weather pattern.
“Temperatures would struggle with severe nighttime frosts and very cold days.
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“So I’m not ruling out a White Christmas at the moment.”
BBC’s long-range forecast for Monday, December 21 to Sunday, January 3, suggested cold air from Scandinavia and northern Russia could make its way over.
The forecast said: “A weather ‘battleground’ will develop across the north Atlantic and Europe during the Christmas week and the UK will be in the middle of it.
“Our last update suggested that a persistent and vigorous low pressure track across the north Atlantic would be the main driver of the UK’s weather, delivering us all some mild, wet and windy weather through the Christmas period. This is still likely for some of the time, but there will probably be an interruption.
“We can’t ignore the prospect that the massive high pressure area over Scandinavia extends a bit further west for a time during the last 10 days of December.
“This would deflect low pressure areas near the UK further south, down over France and Spain. Cold air over Scandinavia and northern Russia would then find it much easier to flow towards the UK for a few days.”
The forecast added a lingering low pressure could bring snow showers during Christmas week.
The forecast said: “The longer range computer forecast models are struggling with which scenario will prevail during the final 10 days of December and there is a lack of agreement and consistency in the predictions.
“This of course reduces forecast confidence, but it does tell us that there is perhaps a greater chance for some changeable temperatures, compared with what was predicted last Friday.
“With a low pressure track often close to the UK, an extended dry, calm and very cold spell still seems unlikely.
“But a short-lived cold intrusion, with frost, freezing fog and perhaps even some sleet and snow showers in a few areas, should make another appearance before the New Year.
“It’s too early to be more specific on the exact timings yet, and crucially, if this colder weather will come in for Christmas Day.
The Met Office also forecast wintry showers for the last week of December.
It said: “On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely.
“Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times.”
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